Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,075 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. That is, of course, unprofitable, and while our projections do indicate we’ll get back to even or profitable by the end of the week, with conference tournament futures ongoing, we want to be transparent with you here.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks.
Another conference tournament future today, for which the odds come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though:
Chattanooga vs. Furman
Chattanooga and Furman can play some deliberate basketball. This is true. Also true is that Chattanooga defends the perimeter well, and that’s where Furman gets its kicks.
Still, this is a low total, and each team’s very good free throw percentage is a red flag for the under in a game in which there figures to be a healthy degree of fouling at the end, considering how evenly matched the two are. Should be a fun one. Should be ruthlessly efficient on the offensive end. Even if it’s slow.
Pick: Over 137 (-110). Medium confidence.
Cleveland State vs. Wright State
Each team can get sloppy on offense, but these are bad defenses, guys, and the extent to which they grade out as slow-tempo defenses is mildly amplified by the Horizon League playing on the slow side. Everyone should get theirs tonight.
Pick: Over 145 (-108). Medium confidence.
Gonzaga vs. San Francisco
Too much is made of the “it’s hard to beat a team three times” narrative. But too much is also made of the idea that prior matchups are indicative of future matchups. Gonzaga beat San Francisco by 16 twice this year. That doesn’t mean tonight will be a 16-point game.
Pick: San Francisco +14.5 (-110). Medium confidence.
Summit League Men’s Basketball Tournament
Something the market doesn’t seem to be considering is the possibility South Dakota wins tonight.
Yes, yes, obviously the market knows this is possible. These odds aren’t infinite. But in a way, it’s not being accounted for, because there’s an element to how you assign probabilities within a bracket that can lead to a difference of numeric opinion on South Dakota.
One way to calculate these probabilities is to multiply the probability of each possible bracket scenario based on teams’ ratings today. For example: South Dakota has a 22% chance of beating South Dakota State today, and if they were playing Oral Roberts today they’d have a 41% chance of winning, and if they were playing North Dakota State they’d have a 43% chance of winning, and Oral Roberts has a 53% chance of beating North Dakota State so South Dakota’s championship probability is 22%*(53%*41%+47%*43%), or 9.2%. Something to consider, though, is what tomorrow’s probabilities look like in the 22% of cases in which South Dakota wins. South Dakota winning tonight would be a sizable upset, and it would change our perception of them. Their probabilities of beating Oral Roberts and NDSU, respectively, would be higher than 41% and 43%. Not a ton higher, but higher. That matters. And it introduces a little value on the Coyotes.
Pick: South Dakota to win +1100. Low confidence.
