Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,717 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
For context on the college basketball futures: We started with 100 units in our portfolio, intending to keep 50 set aside in case we needed to hedge. We’re up half a unit so far, and we only had 4 units pending across 3 bets entering today, leaving us betting from a bankroll of 96.5 units.
Big Sky Conference Tournament
At these odds? NAU is a good value play.
The Lumberjacks are something like 15% likely to win this thing, looking at being a small underdog in the semis and then most likely a moderate underdog in the championship (though Montana State going down would change some things). We’ll add NAU to Sacramento State in our Big Sky assortment.
Pick: Northern Arizona to win +950. Low confidence.
West Coast Conference Tournament
Two units on this one, which isn’t a hedge but does somewhat function as one. We think there’s positive value here. We also have BYU outstanding at 40-to-1. We may or may not actually hedge if Saint Mary’s wins, but if it’s Saint Mary’s vs. Gonzaga, we don’t expect to be able to hedge into certain profit with a bet this small, so if you’re looking to hedge out of a BYU future you followed us into, do it another way. We still believe in BYU. We just also see value on Saint Mary’s.
Pick: Saint Mary’s to win +145. Low confidence. x2
Louisiana vs. South Alabama
The market’s leaning ULL, KenPom has it as an even tossup. We’ll trust KenPom, betting on the market overvaluing ULL’s regular season sweep here. USA’s been playing just as well as the Cajuns.
Pick: South Alabama +1.5 (-106). Low confidence.
College of Charleston vs. Towson
Towson’s a good team, but this line seems to be overthinking itself. Washington’s close to Baltimore, but not that close. Towson’s been playing well, but not that well. Charleston had a little blip a month or so ago, but it wasn’t that bad. The Cougars are the better team, and we like them to get things done.
Pick: College of Charleston -4 (-110). Low confidence.
