Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,326 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 2% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Just futures today (intrigued by the overs tonight, but too close to risk it). As usual, futures come from Bovada, due to the absence of a current, consistently accurate Vegas consensus online.
National Championship Game: Exact Matchup
Houston, if you trust KenPom, is undervalued. We do trust KenPom. They’ve likely been undervalued this whole time, and while part of that has been related to the relative convenience of their path, a lot is related to just how good Houston is: The Cougars might be an underdog against Baylor or Michigan, but not by more than a point or two (if they are, bet on them). They’re no Gonzaga, but they’re a legitimate top team, and while legitimate top teams can certainly stumble (see: Illinois, Iowa, Alabama), the percentages here are good.
In the make-the-championship-game market, UCLA and USC aren’t undervalued. But a lot of that is because the vig with futures can be pretty large. Combined with Houston, they both offer good value—there’s somewhere in the range of an 11% probability one of these matchups is the one. Is it possible Gonzaga is so good that KenPom is broken and this is an overvaluation? Yes. But Gonzaga would have to be undervalued by a few points to make these a bad play in terms of pure expected results. A few points would be a surprising miss.
Pick: USC vs. Houston +2800. Low confidence.
Pick: UCLA vs. Houston +3500. Low confidence.
