Editor’s Note: For more than two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 1.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,314 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 1.6% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Futures odds, as usual, come from Bovada due to the lack of a consistently current, accurate Vegas Consensus online.
But first:
Michigan vs. LSU
Something to remember with the Isaiah Livers injury is that for as good as he is offensively, he’s comparably good defensively. Michigan’s missing more than just a scorer as they take on an LSU team that makes life hell for the defense.
Pick: Over 148.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Florida State vs. Colorado
Aside from Syracuse, an enigma unto themselves, the ACC has disappointed thus far in the tournament. The lion’s share of that is that the ACC has few good teams this year. The next-biggest contributor is the fact that Virginia didn’t get to practice for a week leading up to their game with Ohio. Whatever that says about Florida State is up in the air, but when it comes down to it for this game, Colorado’s probably better.
Pick: Colorado +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Kansas vs. USC
As with Colorado, USC’s probably the better team here, even with Jalen Wilson back on the court for Kansas.
Pick: USC to win -110. Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament Champion
One thousand quick simulations this morning gave the following national title likelihoods:
Gonzaga – 34%
Baylor – 17%
Houston – 11%
Michigan – 8%
Loyola – 7%
Should Iowa win today, they may well pass Loyola in that lineup, and Alabama could also make a play, but the Ramblers’ number seven ranking in KenPom does not look like a strange-season anomaly. Probably because it isn’t.
Pick: Loyola +1800. Low confidence.
