Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,930 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both single-day bets and futures form.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 120–87–1 and we’re down 5.16 units. We’ve mostly been betting moneyline favorites the last couple months, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday, February 23rd. Our portfolio has 350 units, and it’s looking like we’ll invest roughly 120 of those before conference tournaments are over. We’re currently investing six units per day.
James Madison vs. Arkansas State
We aren’t sure why Arkansas State’s game yesterday against App State was so low in its possession count, but our best guess is that because it was close, teams were careful with the ball and conscientious about getting back on defense. We think this one might be close too, but we think the market’s overreacting a bit to one data point.
Pick: Over 149.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Gonzaga vs. San Francisco
A similar theory here. Maybe unders are the move in conference tournaments, but I’m not familiar with that line of reasoning, which makes me think San Francisco’s slow game on Saturday night was mostly happenstance. (Also, in what we expect to be a game with a moderate Gonzaga lead towards the end, we wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of Dons fouls to try to extend the game.)
Pick: Over 150 (–115). Low confidence.
Big Sky Conference Tournament
We have the outstanding 200-to-1 future on Sacramento State from yesterday, but these are not hedges. These are more valuable plays, possibly created by books flipping their leverage because they now have something of a liability on the Hornets. More to come tomorrow, when Sac State plays the Weber/MSU winner.
Pick: Idaho State to win +675. Low confidence.
Pick: Montana State to win +1100. Low confidence.
Pick: Portland State to win +1400. Low confidence.
Horizon League Tournament
This has a small eROI attached to it, but we like the positive value on the Norse. Viewed from afar, Darrin Horn is a good coach, and it always feels good to be in on a good coach in March.
Pick: Northern Kentucky to win +325. Low confidence.
WCC Tournament
We have an outstanding San Francisco future in this one, so tonight could get really fun. Most likely, it won’t be, but we do appreciate this value, even with Santa Clara a little banged up. Saint Mary’s isn’t fully healthy themselves, I don’t think.
Pick: Santa Clara to win +2500. Low confidence.
Southland Conference Tournament
Last, a little more on McNeese. The value’s positive, and even with Longwood hitting and the Big Sky situation looking bright, we like having some favorites in the mix.
Pick: McNeese to win –380. Low confidence.
