Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,443 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.9% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Miami @ Boston
The Marlins are bad. They’ve lost a bunch of games in a row. But their bullpen’s relatively fresh, this is a bullpen game, and if there were ever a trap game in baseball it’d be an early-evening affair the day after sweeping your archrival. Nick Pivetta’s been great, but not outside-the-error-bars great, and with the wind blowing out, flyball pitchers like Pivetta might have trouble.
Pick: Miami to win +170. Low confidence.
Kansas City @ Anaheim
Jackson Kowar makes his debut tonight, and while he’s not one of the Royals’ best best prospects, he’s a solid prospect who’s sporting a 1.94 FIP and 0.85 ERA from his six AAA starts to date. The Royals are deserved underdogs, and Dylan Bundy hasn’t been as bad as his ERA implies, but there’s value here even if you put Kowar at a cautious 4.60 FIP, which is where FanGraphs has him.
Pick: Kansas City to win +135. Low confidence.
