Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,374 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of college basketball season.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just MLB futures during the week for the time being. For context: The MLB futures portfolio started at the beginning of the season with 520 units, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them for hedging down the line.
NL Central
We put a few units down on the Cardinals at +115 in recent weeks. Since then, the Brewers have retaken the advantage, and though they haven’t done so decisively, they’ve done it firmly enough to make this valuable.
You don’t normally want to be pairing -140 with +115 in a binary race. You can’t profit in the market if those are your odds. Our situation is even worse than that, though. We’ve bet the Brewers at as short as -300 odds at points this season.
No, the NL Central isn’t a good market for us at the moment. Should the Brewers win, we make 2.14 units on it. Should the Cardinals win, we lose 11.10 units on it. Still, we’re going to place this, not because it improves our Central outlook dramatically, but because it helps pay in a number of scenarios for potential losses in the AL Central and NL West, where we have liability on the White Sox and Dodgers.
Pick: Milwaukee to win -140. Medium confidence.
World Series
There’s plenty of value here on Atlanta, whom FanGraphs still rates as the best team in the Majors on paper. With this down, we now turn a 96-unit profit in the World Series market should Atlanta repeat. Lots of value, all season long.
Pick: Atlanta to win +1400. Medium confidence.
