Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,034 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Back to our two weekday markets today.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 51–36–1, we’re up 9.22 units, we’re up 10% (the average line on our winners has been –113). April was great, May was bad, June has been good.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 116.79 units, or 11.2%.
Milwaukee @ New York (NL)
I get it, the Mets are doing the thing where they lose often and in comedic ways. But is anything actually wrong? And will it show up tonight? The Mets are one of the most overvalued teams by futures markets, so when they pop as a good value play in our FanGraphs screening, it stands out. This is a good matchup for them, and it’s worth noting that the Brewers aren’t exactly cruising right now.
Pick: New York (NL) to win –164. Low confidence. (Rea and Verlander must start.)
ALCS
This is very low-eROI, so if I had to guess, sportsbooks are a little light on Blue Jays bets and a little heavy elsewhere, so they’re pulling a lever. It’s still positive-eROI, though, and we are also a little light on Blue Jays bets, so we’ll take it. They’re more likely than not to make the playoff field, even if they’re finally projected by FanGraphs to finish behind the Orioles.
Pick: Toronto to win +1000. Medium confidence.
World Series
It’s a similar story here, though the Twins have been undervalued by the market often this year, making the explanation likely different. It’s so hard to trust the Twins, but it’s really hard to see the Guardians making it happen this year in the Central. If the Twins get a seat at the table, it’ll be a good one, making this worth our while.
Pick: Minnesota to win +2800. Medium confidence.
