Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 292 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Two picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Kansas City @ Cleveland
The time will soon come when the Royals will trade expendable assets for the possibility of future value.
In all likelihood, Brad Keller will be staying put.
Keller, a Rule 5 pick prior to the 2018 season, had a strong rookie year in Kansas City, finishing with a 3.08 ERA over 20 starts and 21 relief appearances. His FIP was 3.55, but his xFIP was 4.26, a product of his tendency to allow home runs on a disproportionately low percentage of fly balls (yes, that’s a good trait in a pitcher, but xFIP makes the assumption it’s all luck, which is obviously not true, but may be more true than FIP indicates).
As xFIP indicated, Keller has regressed this year, allowing more home runs than last year and watching his ERA rise, though home runs aren’t his biggest problem—that would be walks—and as a sinkerballer, his FIP will likely always outperform his xFIP. Even with the regression, Keller is proving valuable.
Having been drafted at 17, Keller is only 23 years old, turning 24 in July. Nonetheless, he’s among the AL’s top ten in innings pitched, and has claimed a reputable 1.3 WAR to date. This innings count and that age gives pause, and it’ll be interesting to see whether the Royals shut Keller down early. He has thrown over 130 innings in each of the past four seasons (three of which were in the minors, of course), but throwing between 91 and 118 pitches in every start, as Keller has done so far, is a lot for an arm, especially a young, unproven one.
Pick: Kansas City +1.5 (-120). Low confidence.
Los Angeles @ Arizona
The season’s first Clayton Kershaw/Zack Greinke matchup is tonight, and while Greinke’s aging and Kershaw’s past his peak, both are having solid years.
Kershaw enters tonight with a 2.85 ERA in twelve starts. His 3.51 FIP is not at all concerning, and while his strikeouts have continued their decline, his walks are staying relatively constant, which is a good tendency to have when pitching in front of the MLB’s best defense (by FanGraphs’ evaluation).
Tied with the Dodgers for the title of best defense so far are the Diamondbacks, and whether it’s because of this or not, Greinke’s walk numbers are at an all-time low. His stats over 16 starts look remarkably similar to those of his former teammate: a 2.91 ERA, a 3.45 FIP, declining strikeout numbers.
It’s not what it would have been in 2015, but it’s still a great matchup, and one that because of 2015 comes with some added sweetness.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110). Low confidence.
