Editor’s Note: For about two and a half years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,447 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.8% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
There’s a future today, and the line for it comes from Bovada due to the lack of a current/accurate Vegas consensus. First, though…
Miami @ St. Louis
Both these teams are a mess right now, but the Cardinals do have the ageless Adam Wainwright on the bump, making them the deserved significant favorite tonight.
This line seems to be putting a lot of weight into the recent performance of Braxton Garrett. He’s made just two appearances and one start, with the relief outing coming in May and the start last week. In the start, he went four innings, walking three Rockies and striking out three while allowing two runs. The relief outing was worse—he yielded three in Los Angeles across three innings of work—but to be making big bets against this guy based on those outings, especially when he has a 2.44 FIP across three AAA starts, feels more than a little like jumping the gun.
Pick: Miami to win +165. Low confidence.
San Diego @ Colorado
The value is low (but positive), which is why the confidence is low, but the Padres are a sizable favorite at Coors tonight with Dinelson Lamet on the bump, and should probably be favored a little more.
Lamet went into a third trip through the order for the first time last week in Chicago and was chased, but his final line wasn’t terrible: Five innings, four earned runs, one dinger, one walk, six strikeouts. It’s those strikeouts that will serve him well in Denver, and it’s the solid-enough Padres bullpen behind him and the Padres’ strong incentives to keep the Giants (and Dodgers, if possible) within arm’s reach that make this a good play.
Pick: San Diego to win -150. Low confidence.
Now…
NL East
Did you know Zach Eflin’s good? I didn’t. I was looking for how good Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have been, and poof! There was Zach Eflin. Zach! You sneaky man.
He’s got a 3.11 FIP. He’s got a 3.47 xERA. Even his ERA’s at 3.89, and this is after all three of those numbers were below 4.00 last year as well.
If Eflin’s your third starter, you’ve got at least a solid rotation. If Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Rhys Hoskins are anchoring a lineup in which every current starter save Ronald Torreyes (who’s filling in for Didi Gregorius, who’s rehabbing and could return soon) has a projected wOBA at or above .320, you’ve got a good lineup. If you’re available at 12-to-1 odds to win your division and you’re three games back on Flag Day, you present good value, especially as a piece in a portfolio that includes a bet on the Mets at +140 from early May.
Alternative explanation: Atlanta has half of a very good roster and half of a very bad roster, and is already multiple games back of both Philadelphia and New York.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +1200. Low confidence.
