Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -4% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 2,995 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
We’re still waiting to revisit our NHL futures portfolio (maybe tomorrow, maybe Wednesday), so today is just a baseball day. For futures context: We started the year with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, but we also have another 520 set aside should we need to hedge down the line.
NLCS
The big value in the NL Pennant market is on Atlanta and San Diego. This is small value. We’re prioritizing it because the value on Atlanta and San Diego is going to be there tomorrow (and for the foreseeable future). That can’t necessarily be said of this.
Pick: San Francisco to win +1200. Medium confidence.
World Series
A similar phenomenon is happening here. There’s more value on Atlanta, San Diego, and Houston, but this changes our portfolio more. We’re getting close to the point where we’ll pour a lot into high-value teams, but the more breadth and depth we can have around and beneath that come October, the better. Hedging involves placing negative-value bets. That’s expensive. Expensive enough to be worth this minor sacrifice.
Pick: Toronto to win +1200. Medium confidence.
