Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,574 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 94–83 so far, down 6.42 units. We’ve mostly been treading water lately, but we haven’t been able to sustain making up significant ground.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Texas @ Anaheim
Are the Rangers getting hot? We don’t know. We don’t, however, think much of the Angels right now. Out of today’s favorites, this one feels the safest relative to the price.
Pick: Texas to win –144. Low confidence. (Gray and Daniel must start.)
Atlanta @ Arizona
For an underdog, we like the Diamondbacks a lot. Ketel Marte should be back in the lineup, and while Yilber Diaz isn’t a top-100 prospect, he’s been strong at Triple-A and profiles well enough that it wouldn’t be surprising if he works out. This isn’t Chris Sale facing the 40th man on the 40-man roster. It’s a better situation for the D-Backs than that.
Pick: Arizona to win +168. Low confidence. (Sale and Diaz must start.)
World Series
I’m surprised by these odds, not because they’re showing especially good value on the Guardians (it’s hardly positive), but because they’re so far from the norm. Cleveland’s at +550 to win the ALCS. This is by far the biggest difference between pennant odds and World Series odds for a team like them.
One thing I do think is underestimated, regarding the Guards, is that if they do hold off the Twins, they’re going to have home-field advantage in the Division Series, quite possibly the ALCS, and even more possibly the World Series. It’s not looking like the AL West champion will challenge whoever wins the Central, and even the Braves right now project to finish with a worse win–loss record than Cleveland.
Pick: Cleveland to win +1800. Medium confidence. x2
