Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,377 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA for having the overall number back profitable is currently November 7th, the likeliest date of a World Series Game 7 and the eve of both college basketball season and Election Day.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Just MLB futures today through Friday. For context on these: We started the season with 520 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with another 520 in reserve in case we need them for hedging down the line.
AL Central
This doesn’t completely plug our White Sox hole, but there’s value here and it makes a big difference in our scenarios, cutting a big chunk out of the gap between these guys and the Twins/Guardians (who give us comparable payouts if they win). Hopefully the value sticks around for another day or more.
Pick: Chicago to win +160. Medium confidence.
NLCS
The Brewers had slipped into an unprofitable route for us in the NLCS, so with value available on them as well today, we’ll erase that hole too. The Dodgers in the NL West were another hole we could have addressed—we prioritized these two because of the length of the odds, and therefore the efficiency. Also, the White Sox’ cost is high. Bigger gap between our good and bad AL Central scenarios than between those we have in the NL West.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +850. Medium confidence.
