Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 383 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Four picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Arizona @ Miami
By ERA, Caleb Smith has been the 23rd-best pitcher in the MLB with 90 or more innings this year. By FIP, he’s 42nd.
Smith is an extreme fly ball pitcher, with the highest fly ball rate and lowest ground ball rate in the 90+ innings sample. His fly balls turn into home runs at a rate that’s slightly above the league average, but not significantly higher, which all adds up to a pitcher who’s probably lucky to have his current 83.6% LOB rate (fourth out of the 99 pitchers in that sample).
As a home run-susceptible pitcher, it makes sense for offenses to be boom-or-bust against Smith. But they’ve been busting unsustainably more than they’ve boomed.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Los Angeles (NL) @ Colorado
Ross Stripling went on the injured list the other day, which bodes poorly for the Dodgers in the playoffs if the issue lingers. Stripling isn’t quite an elite pitcher, but with Rich Hill an unknown, he’s currently Los Angeles’ fourth-best starter, ahead of tonight’s hurler, Kenta Maeda.
Maeda’s ERA is the exact same as it was over the regular season last year: 3.81. But his FIP has climbed from 3.22 to 4.29 as he’s transitioned back to being a full-time starter. He’s achieved the same results (ERA) with an impossibly lower BABIP (.230, compared to .321 last year), and while both BABIP’s have been anomalies, this year’s is on the concerning side.
Maeda has done a good job limiting exit velocity, with his opponents’ average in the metric ranking in the top three percent of all of baseball. But even with that, his XBA is higher than its real equivalent, foreshadowing future results not as rosy as those to date.
The Dodgers remain in a great spot with regard to starting pitching: Ryu, Buehler, and Kershaw are an imposing top three. But the sooner they can get Stripling or Hill back and return Maeda to the bullpen, the better their chances if they find themselves needing a mid-series win in October.
Pick: Colorado to win (+120). Low confidence.
Pick: Over 13 (-110). Low confidence.
Detroit @ Anaheim
Rumors have slowed regarding Tigers right fielder Nicholas Castellanos, but with an expiring contract, a 108 wRC+, and a team that’s seven games back of even the Royals, his movement in the next 48 hours is likely inevitable.
It’s hard to know what the market is for a serviceable corner outfielder or a very good platoon/bench bat. But it’s hard to imagine demand being light enough for the Tigers to not get at least something for the 27-year-old before he hits free agency.
Pick: Detroit +1.5 (+120). Low confidence.
