Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,061 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
MLB moneyline, MLB futures.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 61–47–4, we’re up 10.26 units, we’re up 9% (the average line on our winners has been –107). April was great, May was bad, June was good. July’s been good, but we need to finish it strong.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 108.94 units, or 10.5%.
Cincinnati @ Milwaukee
We are not Reds believers. This is prominently evidenced in our futures portfolio, where we stand to lose 32 units if the Reds win the Central, 36 more units if the Reds win the NLCS, and an additional 94 units if the Reds win the World Series. More on this in a moment. Four units more, in fact (those are included in the 32 number).
If the Reds win tonight, we’ll only lose one unit, which is affordable by comparison. We’re feeling good about retaining it, though. Graham Ashcraft may be coming in off four straight quality starts, but he has just a 4.54 FIP in those four starts, which is solid but not exactly “hot.” Colin Rea, meanwhile, just continues to help hold this Brewers’ rotation together. He’s nothing special, but he does the job.
We’re 6–2 betting on the Brewers this year, with a 33% ROI on those plays.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –110. Low confidence. (Ashcraft and Rea must start.)
NL Central
The Cubs are in a weird spot where they’ll still probably sell, making the pure FanGraphs eROI likely an overestimate, but the value is good enough here that we feel we have to take it. In a corresponding move, there’s still positive value available on the Brewers as well, so we’ll continue our giant fade against the Reds in this market. We’re approaching white-knuckle territory with that.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –175. Medium confidence.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +1500. Medium confidence.
