Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,612 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 102–86–2 so far, down 4.09 units. We’ve gotten within reach of profitability a few times this year, but we haven’t been able to sustain a surge. We’re currently at least two or three great days away.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Milwaukee @ Chicago (NL)
Javier Assad is far from a lost cause. But. His strikeout numbers are negligible, and his ERA has always outpaced his xERA and FIP. We’d be more cautious about that if he’d been pulling it off for ten years. But Assad’s career innings pitched are hardly past one season’s worth. Tobias Myers is a much better bet to be for real, and these Brewers are a better team than these Cubs.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –118. Low confidence. (Myers and Assad must start.)
AL Central
The Royals had a good weekend. Yes, it was only the White Sox that they swept, but a sweep’s a sweep and the Guardians and Twins both struggled. These odds give us a chance to flip Kansas City back to a profitable AL Central scenario within our portfolio. We’ll take it.
Pick: Kansas City to win +750. Medium confidence.
World Series
The Rays also had a good weekend, climbing back above .500 while earning a chance at a 3–1 series win over the Yankees today. The Mariners’ struggles have opened significant space in the Wild Card race. It doesn’t presently look like Tampa Bay’s a seller.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +15000. Medium confidence.
