Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 362 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 6% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
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Two picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Cincinnati @ Milwaukee
The Reds’ pitching staff has cooled down after its strong start to the year. It still ranks in the top ten in fWAR, but it’s not in the top three, as it was at the end of May. Which, if you’re doing the math, means it’s been somewhere close to average this last month and a half.
Nonetheless, Sonny Gray continues his renaissance.
Gray’s FIP (3.36) is a career-best. And with over 100 innings already in the bank, he’s poised to possibly top his career high in fWAR. Considering he was regarded as an ace back in his Oakland days, that’s no small feat.
The legend of Derek Johnson grows.
Pick: Cincinnati to win (+105). Low confidence.
New York (AL) @ Minnesota
Martín Pérez showed potential back in 2014 and ’15 with the Rangers, two injury-shortened seasons in which he posted FIP’s of 3.70 and 3.40. But only since leaving Arlington has he really put things together.
In his first year up north, Pérez is one of only 30 MLB pitchers with 100+ innings pitched and a FIP under 4.00. He’s not the Twins’ ace, but nobody’s asking him to be. Instead, he’s been a reliable cog in a solid rotation—a valuable cog in what’s looking more and more like a white-knuckle division race.
Pick: Minnesota to win (+105). Low confidence.
