Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,562 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 89–75 so far, down 2.62 units. That’s better than flipping coins, but it’s not where we want to be. For what it’s worth, we’re coming off a strong week.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Houston @ Toronto
The Astros are playing well, but that’s baked in. They should be playing well. They’re a good team. This is a day game after travel, and their best active player is out of the lineup. We’ll ride with the beat-up Blue Jays bullpen as an underdog.
Pick: Toronto to win +114. Low confidence. (Brown and Rodriguez must start.)
World Series
The Braves are still a serious World Series threat, and they’re playing better ball again after getting a little forgettable. Bets books took before Acuña’s injury are naturally low-value, but that can work in bettors’ favor now. Books have to offer value on someone, and at the moment, they can afford to extend themselves a little on Atlanta.
Pick: Atlanta to win +1000. Medium confidence.
NL East
In a nice little combination, we can also get value on the Phillies, whom we continue to try to push more than two units clear of break-even status for our portfolio in the NL East market. The idea here is that if the Phils are more than two units clear, we’ll be able to bet on the Braves with no hesitation if we ever see value on them later in the season.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –325. Medium confidence.
