Editor’s Note: Joe would downplay how successful this is, but over a sample size of 313 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), his picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 5% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high), meaning he’s been good enough to consistently make the people money.
As always, use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose following Joe’s picks. At the same time, though, you’re also responsible for any money you win.
Similarly, if you have a gambling problem, or even think you might have a gambling problem, get help. If you need help getting help, reach out to us via the contact information available on our About page.
Two picks for today’s games.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is often used and/or cited.
- The writeups often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. This is because in general, picks are being made because the numbers I’m using indicate the pick is beyond a certain confidence threshold, and I’m not coming across enough red flags to pass on it.
Chicago (NL) @ Pittsburgh
The Cubs’ and Pirates’ bullpens have the ignominious distinction of leading the MLB in walk rate, each offering free bases to more than 11% of opposing hitters.
This has especially been a trend in recent years for the Cubs, who were among the top two teams in bullpen walk rate in both 2017 and 2018, and finished with the sixth-most in the metric in 2016.
This isn’t necessarily a bad thing, in and of itself. Walks can be useful for avoiding damage, and when paired with a high strikeout rate they can simply be a function of how a bullpen collectively approaches hitters.
But neither the Cubs’ nor the Pirates’ bullpen is striking all that many batters out. Both do rank in the top half of the league in strikeout rate, but the Cubs can only claim that narrowly, and the Pirates are a long way from the top. The result? For the Pirates, it’s been one of the worst bullpen ERA’s in baseball, at 4.98. For the Cubs, it’s been an ERA that’s likely propped up by a lower-than-average BABIP and one of the highest LOB%’s of any ‘pen.
In other words, even if someone pulls away early tonight, they’ll need to lead by more than a few runs to feel very confident.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win (+110). Low confidence.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-115). Low confidence.
