Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,054 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Futures, a moneyline…the usual.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 56–46–3, we’re up 4.78 units, we’re up 5% (the average line on our winners has been –110). April was great, May was bad, June was good. July’s been ok, but we could use a win.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units based on what we’ve bet so far is 129.57 units, or 12.5%.
San Francisco @ Cincinnati
We’re really hoping the weather can hold in Cincinnati tonight.
Neither bullpen is particularly fresh, but the Giants have a big advantage if they can keep this game between the starting pitchers. Logan Webb is one of the best starters in the league. Brandon Williamson is one of the worst. We may be seeing the Reds return to earth, having just gone 1–5 against the Brewers to bookend the All-Star Break. Here’s hoping that becomes 1–6.
Pick: San Francisco to win–145. Low confidence. (Webb and Williamson must start.)
NL Central
We’re in a position where we can afford one of our favorable division favorites losing, but if another goes down, we’re in some trouble. What does this mean? Across baseball’s six divisions, we’re set to profit at the individual division level if the Rangers (+7.00 units), Brewers (+5.03), Twins (+4.19), Braves (+3.47), and Rays (+0.18) win. The Dodgers (–7.24) are a liability, with upside on the Giants (+12.00), Padres (+26.80), and Diamondbacks (+68.00); and the Astros are a liability (–5.14). There are other potential ups and downs (the AL East is complicated), but the general picture is that if favorites win divisions, we profit on the overall regular season portion of our portfolio. This is important for us as a baseline. It helps us make sure we aren’t getting too far out over our skis betting longshots in these markets where it’s more difficult to hedge than with the pennants and the World Series.
Where this leaves us today is putting more down on the Brewers (this is what gets us up to that 5.03 number) as we try to insulate ourselves from the Astros, who are bearing down on the Rangers. We’re very scared of the Reds (–26.00) and the Guardians (–17.00), but it’s rare to be able to corner a market. More often, we have vulnerabilities. The Ohio vulnerabilities aren’t the worst ones to have, and there’s still a lot of season left in which they can either fade or we can make them a little more palatable.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –175. Medium confidence.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –175. Medium confidence.
