Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,583 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB futures. Moneylines will return on Friday. We may take a day or two off before then, depending what the futures markets are offering.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
NLCS
The first of today’s futures is straightforward. The Diamondbacks were a break-even scenario for us, the value of the odds got positive, and here we are. What’s probably happened here is that the market’s reacting slowly to the D-Backs’ strong push entering the break. We’ll happily take advantage.
Pick: Arizona to win +2800. Medium confidence.
AL Central
This one is weirder. The Tigers are probably out of it. They’re probably a seller. They probably have no aspirations left of winning the division, at least in the front office. 250-to-1 is so long, though, and the top of the AL Central is shaky enough, and nine of the twelve games the Tigers play before the trade deadline come against the teams they’re chasing. We do occasionally deviate from our process, but this value is good enough to keep us following that process today. It’s only two units out of a 750-unit portfolio. If they even get close, this would be a huge leverage chip.
Pick: Detroit to win +25000. Medium confidence.
