Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,581 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
College Football Playoff National Championship: Georgia vs. TCU
I did some warbling on this earlier, but the short version is…
I think Michigan flopped.
I love what this TCU team is about. I love watching them play. I sentimentally hope they pull this off, or at least give us a Butler-vs.-Duke game. But I just don’t think the Horned Frogs are good enough to hang with this Georgia team. At least Ohio State had the talent. TCU doesn’t even have enough of that.
I hope I’m wrong, but this looks like the night the magic runs out.
Pick: Georgia -13.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Colgate @ Army
These are two of the best shooting teams in the country, especially when playing one another. Their offenses aren’t too up-tempo, but they also aren’t plodding. The question, then, is just whether they can get enough possessions while avoiding one or both teams having an off night. We’re betting the answer to that is yes.
Pick: Over 151 (-110). Low confidence.
Oral Roberts @ New Mexico
Two more fun offenses, two more absent defenses (New Mexico’s isn’t terrible, but compared to who they want to be compared to, it’s bad). The Pit should be rocking, it should be a fast and fun game, get on board because we’re having a good time.
Pick: Over 162.5 (-110). Low confidence.
