Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,495 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low-confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are low-confidence.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball; college football futures.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 31–36. We’re down 6.12 units. Northwestern’s win yesterday got us back on the board.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio. We’re down about 131 units so far. We’ve never lost more than 25% of a futures portfolio before, but if Washington covers +4.5 tonight, this will be the time it happens. We are very sorry. We do believe in our final picks, for whatever that’s worth.
Northeastern @ Monmouth
This is a shot in the dark, but we like Monmouth to defend their home court. They’re a little better than Northeastern. This is a default pick because there’s so little college basketball going on.
Pick: Monmouth to win –126. Low confidence.
Michigan vs. Washington
This falls under our futures bucket, and it includes our last 11 units of cash flow (we do have 0.23 units left, but those will sit unused). Here’s where the futures portfolio lands in each possible outcome:
| Outcome | Final Net |
| Michigan by 8+ | +0.01 |
| Michigan by 5-7 | -25.84 |
| Michigan by 4 | -148.87 |
| Michigan by 1–3 | -171.17 |
| Washington | -273.77 |
Pick: Michigan –7.5 (+135). Low confidence. x11
