Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,635 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Baylor @ Texas
I’m surprised this line is as high as it is, but I guess the market agrees with me. Texas is the better team playing at home (and, if reports from Austin are accurate, the student body could be on Snow Day Eve mode, which adds some feverishness if that’s what you want to call it).
Pick: Texas -4 (-110). Low confidence.
Iowa State @ Texas Tech
I don’t want to overstate how little Iowa State was trying to beat Missouri, but Iowa State was not trying very hard to beat Missouri on Saturday. That’s a dangerous game, but it was necessary for the Cyclones, who’ve been flooring it for a month now. If they can get through tonight, they get a four-day pause before their rematch with Kansas. We like them to get through tonight.
Pick: Iowa State +2 (-110). Low confidence.
