Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,558 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
The last real bowl games of the year (plus some college basketball):
ReliaQuest Bowl: Mississippi State vs. Illinois
This is Zach Arnett’s first bowl game as a head coach. Bret Bielema is 4-5.
Pick: Illinois +3 (-105). Low confidence.
Citrus Bowl: LSU vs. Purdue
Another first-game-as-a-head-coach here, this time for Brian Brohm, who’s an interim (he did act as head coach once in 2020, but it doesn’t appear to be listed on his official record). Brian Kelly is 7-3 if you don’t include his CFP and BCS games, and 7-6 if you include them.
Pick: Purdue +15 (-110). Low confidence.
Cotton Bowl: Tulane vs. USC
Willie Fritz is 2-1 in FBS bowls, though he did coach in the 2001 Mineral Water Bowl while at D-II Central Missouri, and he did win that game. Lincoln Riley is 1-0 when the game isn’t a CFP semifinal and 0-3 when it is. We’re going to stick with only FBS non-playoff/championship bowls for this exercise, given we’re being forced to choose.
Pick: Tulane +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. Utah
James Franklin is 5-5 on his career in these. Kyle Whittingham is 11-4 (he was once 11-1, though).
Pick: Penn State -1 (-108). Low confidence.
Rutgers @ Purdue
Rutgers is good. A surefire tournament team, it currently appears, and after today potentially not an underdog again until February, when they go to Bloomington and Champaign back to back. Rutgers’s vaunted defense, though, excels more on the perimeter than in the paint. It isn’t bad inside—it’s good, just not great like the outside stuff is—but Clifford Omoruyi should have some trouble containing Zach Edey, and is going to have to do a lot to stay out of foul trouble in a Mackey Arena which should be hyped all the way up.
On the other end? Rutgers does not have a very good offense, and what they do well—generate second chances—is something Purdue is adept at stopping.
No upset here.
No scare, even.
Pick: Purdue -8.5 (-106). Low confidence.
West Virginia @ Oklahoma State
Each of these teams took a tough loss in Kansas on Saturday, the Mountaineers going down in overtime against K-State after a wild second half, the Pokes falling to KU in a frantic final minute. They’re comparable in terms of overall quality, and the game should be a wild one, full of loose balls. We like Oklahoma State to get on the board in conference play, being the one playing at home.
Pick: Oklahoma State -3 (-115). Low confidence.
