Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,772 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Just college basketball. With the 49ers winning yesterday, our NFL futures will finish in a good place, but we missed out on the Ravens, who would have helped even more. We’ll make another move or two before the Super Bowl, but nothing on that front today.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 58–55 and we’re down 10.10 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Duke @ Virginia Tech
We don’t like betting against home teams, especially with short odds, but we really don’t trust Virginia Tech, and Duke feels like a weird sleeper right now just because they don’t play many good teams.
Pick: Duke to win –170. Low confidence.
Houston @ Texas
Houston’s road record is still weak enough that we think it’s being held against them. We also don’t expect Texas to win a tough-off.
Pick: Houston to win –215. Low confidence.
