Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,618 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Wisconsin @ Northwestern
Wisconsin got Tyler Wahl back on Tuesday, Northwestern gets its whole program back today.
There were enough Covid layoffs in 2020-21 to have some precedent for this, but it’s only been eight days, and if I remember correctly, the amount worse a team was depended heavily on how long they’d been idle. The line is 2.5, KenPom has it at 4, hard to see any value there. Where we do see some value is on the under, given Wahl was shaky against Penn State and both the Wildcats and Badgers struggle to score night in and night out. They’re slow-paced, defense-first teams. We like that recipe for us.
Pick: Under 123.5 (-110). Low confidence.
New Mexico @ Nevada
New Mexico’s coming off a nice win Friday night in Albuquerque, Nevada’s coming off getting beaten up last Tuesday up in Boise. Each team has played notably better in recent weeks than earlier in the year.
We like Nevada to hold serve. The teams are roughly equivalent, they’re tied in the standings, it looks like a good game but one that should follow the script.
Pick: Nevada -3.5 (-105). Low confidence.
