Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.9% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,313 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.3% across 2,266 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks these days are mostly in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball; college football; college football futures. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 27–30. We’re down 4.63 units, but we’re 6–3 over our last nine. Don’t call it a comeback.
Single-day college football bets: On the season, we’re 89–96–3. We’re up 3.26 units on the year, and we’re up 12.30 units on FBS bowls.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. We’re down about 22 units so far, but we have upside remaining. More importantly: All of the bets we list here grade out as positive-value bets unless we explicitly mark them as a hedge. So, if you’ve been faithfully following, we’re still on track to not lose more than 25% (and we retain upside), but if you’re new, these are a good place to start.
Hampton @ Drexel
We think bettors sometimes overweight how an early tip limits offense. We think this can be especially true on New Year’s Day between two East Coast teams.
Pick: Over 141 (–110). Low confidence.
Bowl Games
We’re including our Sugar Bowl plays and our Rose Bowl-adjacent plays in our futures bets, since we’ve been doing so much there on them. Here, just our final moneyline underdogs of bowl season. It’s been a blast.
We might bet the FCS national championship or the CFP national championship against the spread, but if we don’t, we would also like to celebrate that we finished profitable on college football single-day plays even if we lose all of these three. To those who rode the rollercoaster by our side: Thanks for sticking with us.
Pick: Wisconsin to win +285. Low confidence.
Pick: Iowa to win +180. Low confidence.
Pick: Liberty to win +660. Low confidence.
CFP National Championship
Four units on this one, and with it and the next we flip the Alabama/Texas/SDSU/Alabama scenario to profitable, greatly improving our probability of profiting. Our best case still goes through Michigan, but our average outcome is seven units better if Alabama beats the Wolverines today. It’s a slight preference.
Pick: Alabama to win +200. Low confidence. x4
Sugar Bowl
Nine units on this one, and the impact here is much bigger. Our average outcome on this year’s futures portfolio is eighty units better if Texas wins this game. We have a total of 61 units on the Longhorns to win tonight, at average odds of –173. Hook ‘em.
Pick: Texas to win –175. Low confidence. x9
