Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,601 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Syracuse @ Miami
Let’s talk matchups, with so much help from KenPom.
Syracuse isn’t particularly effective at defending the three, but they do make (or allow) teams to shoot a lot of them. Miami is a bad shooting team.
Syracuse is more efficiently offensively when it shoots from beyond the arc, but it doesn’t do that often. Miami will not encourage that, tending to funnel teams inside.
Syracuse and Miami are both strong on the offensive glass and weak on the defensive glass, which increases offensive efficiency but decreases tempo.
And finally, on the tempo side: Both teams play faster than average when they have the ball. On the other end, though, they’re two of the slowest defenses in the country. Both those things matter.
Pick: Under 150 (-110). Low confidence.
UAB @ Middle Tennessee State
Maybe Jelly Walker plays. But if he was in a boot on the bench on Saturday, it doesn’t look likely, and an already struggling UAB team without the center of their offense is just another Conference USA squad. In a gross oversimplification in which all just–another–Conference–USA–squads are the same, that would make the line MTSU -3. We’re not going to go that far, but we do think there’s some room for cushion here.
Pick: MTSU +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
