Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,681 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: College basketball. We have some NFL futures interests (the Steelers and Bucs, both indirectly) but we aren’t betting on individual NFL games right now after performing so badly over the regular season.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 37–47. We’re down 13.12 units. We’ve been getting crushed.
Brown @ Harvard
Harvard isn’t much (they’re likeliest to finish fifth in the Ivy League), but they’ve generally taken care of business this year. We’ll take them to do it again this afternoon and hope the price is better than it would be without this long layoff coming in.
Pick: Harvard to win –155. Low confidence.
Villanova @ Marquette
Has Marquette struggled to open Big East play? Yes. Is there enough of a body of work from this roster for us to trust them to get back to being one of the league’s top teams? Yes. We think they get a big one today.
Pick: Marquette to win –250. Low confidence.
