Editor’s Note: For a little more than three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,964 published picks, not including bets that remain pending, like futures. 0.7% doesn’t sound amazing, but relative to what else you get on the internet?
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks of all kinds, and FPI is used in making conference championship futures picks.
College football, college basketball, in order:
Alabama vs. Georgia
This line is probably the best guess out there for how this game is going to go, so if picking straight-up, yes, Georgia’s the better team. We have an easier time seeing Alabama pull it off against the spread, though, especially because many of the explanations for Alabama’s trouncing of the Dawgs in the SEC Championship rattle back to a basis in which Kirby Smart probably gets too much credit and Nick Saban gets too little.
Pick: Alabama +3 (-120). Low confidence.
Oregon @ Oregon State
Underwhelming pair here, but which is better poised to bounce back? Relative to how they’ve played so far, the answer’s probably 3-10 Oregon State, but with this spread, there’s a better chance of Oregon rounding into form and winning a should-win game than there is of the Beavers entering the ranks of the living for the first time all season.
Pick: Oregon -4.5 (-110). Low confidence.
