Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,649 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Duke @ Miami
Is Duke immune from a letdown, going on the road after an emotional home win on Saturday?
I don’t think so, but more than that, I don’t think it matters. Miami is just as good as Duke and has yet to lose this year in Coral Gables, while Duke has yet to beat a team better than Boston College away from home. Those kinds of narratives can be overblown, but Miami is deservedly the favorite here.
Pick: Miami -3 (-110). Low confidence.
Texas @ Kansas
We believe Texas is a better team than Kansas, but we aren’t sure if we believe in Texas to win the Big 12. This is kind of a problem with the Big 12. The believable champions aren’t that good, the better team isn’t believable as a champion. The conference will have strength in numbers come March, looking like an 8-bid league at the moment, but it’s going to need at least one team to overperform if it wants anybody in this Final Four.
Anyway, Kansas should bounce back and take care of business tonight, pulling Texas back down towards the pack. Come Saturday, we should have five teams within a game of one another yet again (and Oklahoma State getting close).
Pick: Kansas -4 (-114). Low confidence.
