Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,788 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: Just college basketball. Still no Super Bowl move(s). We aren’t waiting for anything specific we’re just always running late.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 70–59 and we’re down 7.45 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
Miami @ Virginia
It would be very 2020s Miami to bounce back and win this one, and very 2020s Virginia to trip over their own feet and lose it. That’s part of why we do moneyline, though. We don’t expect it to be pretty.
Pick: Virginia to win –240. Low confidence.
Kansas @ Kansas State
Kansas looked incredible on Saturday, Kansas State is on Quit Watch, and this number is devastatingly small. Still, we have too hard a time believing that the Jayhawks have completely changed who they are in the span of a week and a half. They’ve struggled all year against medium teams.
Pick: Kansas State +3.5 (–105). Low confidence.
