Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,697 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
A little programming note: We’ll get into this year’s conference tournament and postseason tournament futures soon, but none on that today (clearly, given the time). Focusing on bracketology right now, since that brings the pageviews. Apologies.
Baylor @ Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State’s back’s back against the wall after four straight losses, which makes the question: Do they wilt? They’re good enough to protect their home court, even against Baylor. We’re going to take the chance on them doing that. Baylor’s still suspect. Not a lot of defense there, which is nice for a team like the Pokes that struggles to score.
Pick: Oklahoma State +1 (-110). Low confidence.
Nevada @ Wyoming
Nevada is either rolling or walking right into a trap. They’ve been playing well lately.
This is more a Wyoming play than a Nevada play. Wyoming’s at that point in the season where teams start to give up. We got crushed by that logic yesterday with Ohio State, but we’ll give it a try here. Worst case, we get to see good basketball on that beautiful court.
Pick: Nevada -5.5 (-107). Low confidence.
