Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,888 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use our own college basketball model to evaluate college basketball futures.
Active markets today: College basketball, in both its single-day and futures forms.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 104–72–1 and we’re down 1.60 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
College basketball futures: We started these on Friday. Our portfolio has 350 units, and it’s looking like we’ll invest roughly 120 of those before conference tournaments are over. We’re currently investing six units per weekday.
Miami @ North Carolina
We don’t like any of the moneylines tonight, so we’re betting spreads. On this one, we expect Miami to continue to spiral with Nijel Pack out, and we think tonight’s a night where UNC’s best players show up. They’re trying to put the ACC away. Miami’s been good enough in recent Marches for opponents to take them to opposite of lightly.
Pick: North Carolina –14.5 (–110). Low confidence.
McNeese @ Lamar
With this, McNeese has gone nearly a month now without stumbling, and that seems like a long time to do that, especially without an established culture. Lamar is near the top of the Southland, with plenty to play for and likely some belief that they can pull this off. We’ll take the Cardinals to keep it close.
Pick: Lamar +9 (–115). Low confidence.
NCAA Tournament
Northwestern’s available in bubble markets at some solid odds, so we’re going to start today with three units on that. Our model and Bart Torvik’s agree that the Wildcats are 84% likely to make the NCAA Tournament field, something which likely only requires a 2–3 finish, or possibly even 1–4.
In championship markets, we still like the value on Houston and Purdue, and we know there’s a long way to go, so we’re trying to stock up on them now. The numbers are too far in Houston’s camp to pass them up, and Purdue makes too much sense compared to Houston to let them not be a comparable option in our portfolio. We’re trying to keep this corner of the portfolio small for now, building a base on these two, Arizona, and UConn if the odds ever turn in our favor over there. Right now, all three of Houston, Purdue, and Arizona would make us a 24 to 29-unit profit if they were to ultimately win the tournament.
For our last unit of the day, we’re in on San Diego State to reach the Final Four. We’re surprised to see such advantageous odds (our model puts the eROI at 28%) on a team that made the national championship game last year. Usually, the market prefers teams with recent or historic tournament success. (see: Connecticut, University of)
Pick: Houston to win NCAA Tournament +750. Low confidence.
Pick: Purdue to win NCAA Tournament +800. Low confidence.
Pick: San Diego State to make Final Four +1600. Low confidence.
Pick: Northwestern to make NCAA Tournament –280. Low confidence. x3
