Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,682 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,607 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Oklahoma State @ West Virginia
Boy oh boy, do we not enjoy picking road underdogs in the Big 12.
Every piece of this game points towards West Virginia getting away with a mediumly easy win. They’re the better team, they’re playing at home, they have a little more to play for, their recent losing streak is longer so there’s more likelihood of a course correction. Sometimes, though, that doesn’t happen, and sometimes the market anticipates it happening a little too hard. We’ll take the upset, or at least something close.
Pick: Oklahoma State +5.5 (-108). Low confidence.
Kansas @ TCU
What does Bill Self do? He wins big games.
Pick: Kansas +2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
