Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,871 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,268 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks.
Active markets today: College basketball and NASCAR.
Single-day college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 91–70–1 and we’re down 5.39 units. We’re currently mostly betting moneyline favorites, so our win–loss record doesn’t line up with our net loss.
NASCAR: We have a terrible track record. Down 57% all-time, mostly from failed efforts in 2022 at a week-to-week portfolio. We have an all-time deficit of 72.00 units in NASCAR. Our overall all-time deficit is 68.72 units. We do not intend to bet anything other than superspeedways this year.
Iowa State @ Houston
Kansas State @ Texas
These two both fit our system, though only narrowly (the line is extremely close to the kenpom line). With the odds so short on both of them, we’ll parlay the pair.
Pick: Parlay – Houston & Texas to win (–197). Low confidence.
Daytona 500
We like to take shots on the Daytona 500 and other superspeedway races. They’re the easiest ones for major longshots to win, because they become such a roll of the dice, often on the final lap. Markets have gotten wiser to this over the last few years, but that won’t stop us from trying to get back profitable all-time with one unit on one driver. The driver today? Ryan Preece, one of the few checking in at longer odds than +6872 (what we’d need to be even all-time). He’s got multiple Daytona 500 top-tens on his career. He’s racing for Stewart-Haas, which shouldn’t be as bad as it’s been in recent years. He has a few top-tens at Talladega as well, and even a top-five there. We think he can give us a chance.
Pick: Ryan Preece to win +8000. Low confidence.
