Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 848 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 8% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. More broadly, it’s adequate when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks for the evening.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
UNC-Asheville @ Hampton
UNC-Asheville’s offense has struggled lately, failing to score more than a point per possession in four of the last six games. This, in and of itself, isn’t all that noteworthy, but it highlights how just playing against bad defenses, like those of the Big South, doesn’t guarantee strong offensive performances. Teams still have to put the ball in the basket, and UNCA’s struggled to do that. They have a strong effective field goal percentage, but they’re terrible from the free-throw line, and while Hampton’s defense is very bad overall, its propensity to foul shouldn’t hurt it tonight as much as normal.
The under is risky here because this should be a relatively high-possession game. But while both teams play up-tempo basketball, neither is at the point of playing a pace that stands out to the naked eye. The numbers bear out that each offense shoots quickly, but the units are still in the thicker part of the bell curve, meaning it’s unlikely we see anything close to 80 possessions. Look for both teams to spend a lot of time at the stripe. Look for that time to be frustrating. Expect it to be slightly more frustrating for the visitors.
Pick: Hampton -2.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Pick: Under 161 (-110). Low confidence.
Alabama State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Arkansas-Pine Bluff’s offense is terrible. The worst in the country, according to many. They haven’t cracked 60 points in almost a month, a phenomenon amplified by their slow offensive pace.
Tonight, though, against one of the SWAC’s more turnover-prone teams, UAPB might find itself with more opportunities to score quickly. It’s tough to trust offenses this bad to put up points, especially against defenses that, compared to the rest of the league, aren’t too shabby. Still, Alabama State’s potential from deep, combined with the aforementioned turnover effect, could keep this a mild slog, rather than an engulfing one.
Pick: Over 122.5 (-110). Low confidence.
