Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,190 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,257 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got a college basketball play, and we’ve got a pick for Monday Night Football. No college football futures today. We will look tomorrow at the national championship markets and what we need to do give that portfolio a shot at profit.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 18–12. We’re up 4.24 units and we’re up 14%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 15–21–7. We’re down 7.57 units and we’re down 18%.
Iowa @ Purdue
Iowa and Purdue are all about offense, and Purdue should bounce back after the loss to Northwestern. But in recent meetings, since Iowa became an offensive juggernaut, these teams usually haven’t reached 160, and Iowa isn’t quite the offensive team they’ve recently been.
Pick: Under 159.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Cincinnati @ Jacksonville
The concern here is the Bengals’ offense, but even with that, turnovers in a comeback situation are scary and could set the Jags up for points. We see more routes to the over here than the under. But we are terrible at NFL picks. Please look at the number above. Do not trust us on this. We aren’t fading ourselves.
Pick: Over 40.5 (–111). Low confidence.
