Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 763 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Four picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
College Football
Redbox Bowl: California vs. Illinois
Illinois did slump a bit down the stretch. Illinois is a little banged up. The game is happening in the Bay Area.
Illinois still might be a better overall team than Cal, though, which means that even after factoring all those things in, the Illini seem like as good a bet to cover as bowl season will afford.
Pick: Illinois +6 (-110). Low confidence.
College Basketball
Green Bay @ Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky is definitely better with Dantez Walton in the lineup.
Since he’s been out, though, they’ve played about as expected, struggling on the road against UNC-Greensboro and taking care of Milwaukee at home.
Given this, and given the non-zero chance Jalen Tate returns tonight, there’s value to be had in this one, especially if you’re at an odd number of picks and are looking for one to tip the scales towards profitability should you split the rest.
Pick: Northern Kentucky to win (-240). Low confidence.
Northeastern @ James Madison
Northeastern is coming off a 106-point total against Towson on Saturday. The Huskies have always liked to keep the tempo slow under longtime coach Bill Coen, but they’ve been especially effective at slowing things down on the defensive end this year.
James Madison, though, is not Towson.
For one thing, the Dukes are about as far from Towson as a team can be when it comes to offensive tempo. They’ve got the 13th-shortest average possession time in the country. Towson has the 21st-longest.
For another, James Madison is terrible defensively. They have one of the 40 poorest defenses in the country, whereas Towson’s above the median in defensive quality.
Northeastern will probably slow things down to an extent. They won’t be able to keep it as slow as they like, though, and with JMU so poor defensively, they’ll make the possessions count. It’s tough to stomach a pick that banks on such an extreme shift from just two days ago, but it’s the right play here.
Pick: Over 150 (-110). Low confidence.
Seton Hall @ DePaul
It’s risky to take Seton Hall with Myles Powell still recovering from the seemingly significant concussion he suffered against Rutgers two weeks back. He’s one of the best players in the country, and while Seton Hall’s managed well in his absence, he’s obviously missed. Their offense relies on him more, perhaps, than any other offense relies on any one player, and it’s the right allocation, given how effective a player he is. Without him, yes, the offense should be expected to be worse.
But here’s the thing:
Seton Hall isn’t a good team because of their offense.
They’re a good team because of their defense.
And that defense is going to give DePaul fits.
They might not block 15 shots, like they did against Maryland. In fact, if DePaul has any shred of “basketball IQ” this will not happen. They will, however, most likely take advantage of DePaul’s propensity to turn the ball over. The Seton Hall defense is aggressive. It fouls rather often. But turnovers come out of it at a faster (relative) rate than free throws, and DePaul’s terrible at the stripe anyway. With the possibility still existing as I write this that Powell will play, grab this if Powell’s status is still uncertain, and maybe grab Seton Hall anyway when all’s said and done.
Pick: Seton Hall +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
