Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,284 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.3% across 2,266 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks these days are mostly in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
Active markets today: NFL; college football futures. Here’s the context on each.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 19–27–8, and we’re down 10.02 units. We’ve won our last two picks, though. So…we’re on fire.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. We’re down about 22 units so far, but we have upside remaining. More importantly: All of the bets we list here grade out as positive-value bets unless we explicitly mark them as a hedge. So, if you’ve been faithfully following, we’re still on track to not lose more than 25% (and we retain upside), but if you’re new, these are a good place to start.
Baltimore @ San Francisco
It’s a big line. But the Niners are playing at home, and it’s been two months since anyone played them closer than twelve points. We’ll ride with them.
Pick: San Francisco –6 (–110). Low confidence.
CFP National Championship
I think a good question about Michigan is whether they can learn from last year. Two years ago might not have been as representative a situation: They were more overmatched. Last year, though, they were definitely the better team than TCU, and with Ohio State playing Georgia to the wire, it’s fair to wonder what Michigan could have done had they not flopped against the Dawgs. This year, they’re probably the best team in the country. Will they figure out how to compete in the unique situation which is these playoff games? Our thought is that if they beat Alabama, they’ll probably also win the next one, which is part of what gives this its value.
Pick: Michigan to win +200. Low confidence. x9
