Editor’s Note: For about two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ NLCS comeback, the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.2% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,260 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.2% might not be enormous, it’s positive over a big sample size. For what it’s worth.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks. Ken Pomeroy’s KenPom is heavily used in making College Basketball picks.
Same note as the last few days, before we get to the picks themselves: We may be pivoting soon into less frequent published bets, at least for a few months. The results aren’t where they’ve been, and we don’t have a great track record with conference games in college basketball. Since our average ROI is still positive, we’re going to keep going, and we may keep going even if it dips slightly negative, but once conference play heats up, it’s likely we’ll be shifting to trying to build a solid futures portfolio and get that average ROI some breathing room. Anyway, if the bets start disappearing for stretches, that’s why.
UNC-Wilmington @ Campbell
It’s hard to figure out what’s driving this line to where it’s at. Campbell’s a bit worse than UNCW overall, but the home-court advantage should have it on the Camel side of a tossup. Whatever the case, there’s value here. Campbell likes to get to the free throw line and force turnovers. UNCW’s not great at preventing either of those things, but they aren’t bad at it either. There’s a good chance that’s what this comes down to. If you can find the Campbell moneyline at +100 or better, it isn’t a bad play.
Pick: Campbell +1.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Texas Southern @ BYU
BYU is hot, coming off sizable victories over Utah and San Diego State. Mark Pope has the team exceeding expectations, looking to add two more quick ones to the win column before beginning WCC play on New Year’s Eve.
But Texas Southern, while not exactly “hot,” has also been exceeding expectations. They’ve beaten Wyoming on the road. They outscored Auburn over a first half. They gave Washington State and Saint Mary’s some trouble. Don’t go thinking they’re going to win (possible, not probable), but if Michael Weathers is healthy (the Tigers’ go-to guy, Weathers went down in the Auburn game, spent some time on the floor, but eventually re-entered, leading us to believe he’s fine), Johnny Jones’s team might cause a scare in Provo tonight.
Pick: Texas Southern +17.5 (-110). Low confidence.
