Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,506 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
One bowl pick, two college basketball picks:
UConn vs. Marshall
Sticking with our approach here, which is one win below .500 so far this year (but much better when including last year): Jim Mora is 2-2 career in bowl games as a head coach. Charles Huff is 0-1. If previous bowl records are overweighted by the market, like our experiment suggests they are, Marshall should cover today.
Pick: Marshall -12.5 (-110). Low confidence.
College of Charleston @ Coastal Carolina
Charleston’s stopped overperforming rating system expectations every game, spending its last two against D-I foes narrowly holding off Presbyterian and Stetson. Coastal Carolina—who should be on the rise with Antonio Daye back—has the home-court advantage, and isn’t the better team or anything but does have a great shot to win tonight.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +8 (-107). Low confidence.
Denver @ Nebraska-Omaha
It’s the Summit League opener for these two, and Denver’s an interesting team. They’ve played one of the absolute weakest schedules in the country, but they’ve dominated it at the basket, getting to the free throw line constantly and scoring bucket after bucket in the paint. Look for a lot of that tonight against a bad Maverick team.
Pick: Over 144.5 (-110). Low confidence.
