Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 740 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 11% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is very good. It’s also good when compared to conventional annual investments, and instead of taking a year to bring that return, it’s taking between three hours and seven months. In short, Joe’s got a good track record.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from KenPom, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Team Rankings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Alcorn State @ Tulane
Under Ron Hunter, Tulane has impressed so far on the season, climbing from 289th in KenPom entering their opener to 221st today. KenPom may have caught up to the Green Wave, considering Tulane hasn’t moved much these last two weeks, but even this is progress for the often-woeful program.
Even with their impressive performance relative to preseason expectations, though, Tulane is favored by more than they deserve tonight. Yes, they’re capable of running up the score against Alcorn State, but it’s more likely this final spread will land in the low double digits. Tulane’s got an impressive record, but it’s been compiled against one of the weakest schedules to date in the nation, and while Alcorn State might not be much, they’re at least moderately better than a 16.5-point underdog in this one.
Pick: Alcorn State +16.5 (-110). Low confidence.
Eastern Illinois @ Western Illinois
It’s possible each of these teams will play at their preferred offensive pace—a conventional tempo. It’s also possible they’ll do what most offenses have done against each of their defenses this year and speed things the hell up. Both EIU and WIU are among the top 50 in Division I when it comes to fastest average defensive possession, and with neither defense particularly strong, that’s often translated to a whole lot of points. The trend bears out when run through KenPom’s adjusted tempo calculations as well—the implied total from those is 157.
Could be a fun one.
Pick: Over 151.5 (-110). Low confidence.
North Carolina A&T @ UTEP
UTEP is something of a dark horse in Conference USA. They’ve got a very light schedule—few games overall, and three against Non-Division-I opponents—but they’ve impressed defensively in what’s been seen so far, forcing turnovers and bad looks while keeping offensive flow at a minimum. Some of this may be a product of who they’ve played—New Mexico, New Mexico State, and Arkansas-Pine Bluff, UTEP’s three D-I opponents so far (they played NMSU twice) all turn the ball over at a high frequency. New Mexico, though, is somewhat adept overall offensively, and UTEP held them to 63.
Those 63 points are the most UTEP’s allowed a D-I foe in all four tries. Twice they’ve limited their opponent to 50. Against one of the worst offenses in the country, and one that’s also content to slow it down, don’t be surprised if a new low is set somewhere in the 40’s, or even 30’s.
Pick: Under 122.5 (-110). Low confidence.
