Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 4,477 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3% across 1,605 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. KenPom is heavily used in making college basketball picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer futures picks. ESPN’s FPI is heavily used in making NFL futures picks.
Two college basketball plays for the evening:
Northern Illinois @ Gonzaga
There’s a few things that could be pushing this line past thirty points in magnitude: NIU lost by 37 to Idaho in its last game. NIU hasn’t played in ten days. Gonzaga and NIU should play a high-tempo game, when combined. Gonzaga may have some frustration to let out after a rough first five weeks of the year.
All of these, though, feel like guessing. The number KenPom has is 29. Four points is a big gap for these sorts of things.
Pick: Northern Illinois +33 (-110). Low confidence.
UC San Diego @ San Diego
San Diego’s been picking up a lot of losses, and some of the home court advantage should be lost due to UCSD coming from the same town. But the difference in strength of schedule makes the win-loss comparison misleading. USD’s a much better team.
Pick: San Diego -6 (-110). Low confidence.
