Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –1% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 6,214 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.2% across 2,257 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks these days are mostly in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We use Movelor heavily to make college football picks. We use kenpom heavily to make college basketball picks. We use FPI heavily to make NFL futures picks, but not spreads and totals.
We’ve got a college basketball play, and we’ve got an NFL pick for Monday Night, and we’ve got our daily college football futures action. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game college basketball bets: On the season, we’re 20–17. We’re up 1.06 units and we’re up 3%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 17–22–7. We’re down 6.76 units and we’re down 15%.
College football futures: We started the season with 300 units in our college football futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 200 of those over the season’s fifteen weeks and keep 100 in reserve for hedging and arbitrage opportunities. We’re down a little more than 40 units so far, but we have upside remaining. More importantly: All of the bets we list here grade out as positive-value bets unless we explicitly mark them as a hedge. So, if you’ve been faithfully following, we’re still on track to not lose more than 25% (and we retain upside), but if you’re new, these are a good place to start.
Howard @ Penn
The concern here seems to be Howard’s layoff, but it’s not like these guys haven’t been shooting. We think they speed Penn’s offense up enough to make this an exciting game, with Penn fairly efficient once the ball’s pointed at the hoop.
Pick: Over 146.5 (–110). Low confidence.
Green Bay @ NY Giants
This is a pretty big number for the Packers, and the Giants are coming off a bye, but Matt LaFleur’s offense seems to be clicking for the first time and the Giants don’t have a lot to play for. We’ll take the visitors, with plenty of trepidation.
Pick: Green Bay –5.5 (–110). Low confidence.
FCS National Championship
We’re going to have to place some sort of hedge on Montana later this week, but for the moment, we’re going in heavier on NDSU on the early post-quarterfinals futures odds. This is awesome value, and we wouldn’t be surprised if the Bison end up the favorites in Missoula by the time books close on Saturday. Even with the vig, and even with the expected hedge, this is too good of value to pass up. Hopefully markets move for us. We are not all that concerned about the distraction factor with Matt Entz leaving for the USC assistant job. It matters, but we don’t see it mattering all that much.
Pick: North Dakota State to win +500. Low confidence. x6
