Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,075 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
Both the moneyline and futures today. Here’s the context on each.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 71–51–4, we’re up 15.41 units, we’re up 12% (the average line on our winners has been –107). April was great, May was bad, June was good, July was great. August has been off to a good start.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 84.35 units, or 8.1%.
Los Angeles @ San Diego
It doesn’t feel great to see the Dodgers as an underdog and take the favorite, but that psychological piece is probably a big part of why this line is available. There’s opportunity on the Padres, who have quietly gained a good chunk of ground on the playoff picture. Tony Gonsolin, always suspect, has been giving up a lot of home runs lately, and Seth Lugo’s looked consistently solid out there. We’ll take San Diego to make this four-game set a split.
Pick: San Diego to win –135. Low confidence. (Gonsolin and Lugo must start.)
NL Central
We still see value on the Brewers. A lot of it, in fact. And while the Reds could still come back in this division, things aren’t looking good there, and the Cubs winning this is an even more profitable scenario for us than the Brewers winning it is. We love our Cubs, but the Brewers still have the better roster on paper, and they’ve got the 1.5-game lead.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +115. Medium confidence.
ALCS
There’s value on the Rays as well, and we’ll happily chip away at how bad a scenario them winning the ALCS would be for us. Our overall American League situation isn’t as good as our National League one, but we do have all that upside on the Orioles, which will give us a lot of leverage. Also? The Blue Jays and Twins are good scenarios, and the Rangers are around break-even for us. So, if it’s chalk from here, getting these Rays closer to even could leave us feeling great after all heading into October.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +360. Medium confidence.
