Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,637 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and futures.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’ve tried a similar approach this year. We’re 113–99–3 so far, down 9.18 units. We’ve gotten within reach of profitability a few times, but we haven’t been able to sustain a surge.
MLB futures: We have a great history with these, though the last two years we’ve only made small profits. In both 2019 and 2021, I believe we recorded better than a 50% ROI. In 2020, we lost about 25% of our portfolio. We began this season with 750 units in our portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. We place two medium-confidence bets most weekdays until sometime in September when the scenarios become more specific.
Chicago (AL) @ Oakland
This is a bit of a meme stock, but I don’t think you can put numbers on how bad the White Sox are right now, and I mean that seriously. The impact that at least we assign to Pedro Grifol is unmeasurable. This team hasn’t wanted to be there for upwards of a year now. It’s a walking disaster. There is no blearier place in baseball for that walking disaster to fester than the visiting clubhouse at the Oakland Coliseum.
Pick: Oakland to win –198. Low confidence. (Bush and Sears must start.)
World Series
We don’t have any relevant portfolio “needs” today, team/market combinations where we can get a team profitable with a good-value bet. So, we’re going for great value. The Diamondbacks are right around the front of the Wild Card race, have a decent enough shot at the Dodgers, and should get Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly back soon. They have their issues—the bullpen’s had some blowups and they can’t count on Jordan Montgomery right now—but those are the exact problems last year’s world champions faced at this moment in the campaign. Montgomery wasn’t this bad, but the parallel stands, and the broader point is that the problems are being overweighted.
Pick: Arizona to win +4000. Medium confidence.
NLCS
Same idea, similar value, slightly different bet.
Pick: Arizona to win +2000. Medium confidence.
