Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 939 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 6% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 6%’s into a whole lot more than 6% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used.
Cleveland @ Cincinnati
It’s still rainy in Cincinnati, but the weather’s supposed to move through around gametime and leave a fairly windless night in its wake. Zach Plesac was brilliant in his first start, but last year’s still probably a better indicator than this year, and while his sub-4.00 ERA was noteworthy, his 4.94 FIP wasn’t quite as strong.
Pick: Over 8 (-115). Low confidence.
Philadelphia @ New York (AL)
Will the Phillies be rusty? Are the Yankees better than the numbers have yet realized? Both could be true, but there’s a cushion with this line, and while things are still going well, I’m going to avoid introducing subjectivity to the method. You can make your own choice on those fronts.
Pick: Philadelphia +1.5 (+130). Low confidence.
New York (NL) @ Atlanta
Jacob deGrom and Mike Soroka. Yikes. But with these odds, the wind at least lightly blowing out, and Ozzie Albies in the lineup despite the wrist issue, it’s worth a look.
Pick: Over 8 (-105). Low confidence.
Chicago (AL) @ Milwaukee
The Brewers also have the rust possibility, and Brett Anderson still carries a stigma from all those years of injury. He was solid in Oakland, though, and Carlos Rodón’s a bit of a wildcard. Not a bad run line underdog in a low-scoring park.
Pick: Milwaukee +1.5 (-170). Low confidence.
