Editor’s Note: For almost three years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of elation (the Nationals winning the 2019 World Series, the first two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the Dodgers’ 2020 NLCS comeback, the second two months of the 2019-20 college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.7% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,489 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 0.7% might not sound enormous, you can do a lot with it over time.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks.
A lot of futures today, and the odds for those come from Bovada due to the absence of a current/accurate Vegas consensus online. First, though…
Cleveland @ Toronto
Mid-afternoon game, Cleveland’s traveling in, Blue Jays have Robbie Ray out there, Cleveland’s got Eli Morgan…just not a lot to hope on for the visitors.
Pick: Toronto to win -275. Low confidence.
Baltimore @ New York (AL)
Andrew Heaney’s on normal rest, and while it’ll be a new experience pitching to whomever his catcher is (Gary Sánchez has caught three straight days, so he could get spelled tonight and/or DH if the Yankees decide to go with the jumbo package in the outfield again and sit Brett Gardner), Jorge López has bad enough projections and has underperformed them badly enough that it’s just hard to see the Orioles pulling it off.
Pick: New York to win -260. Low confidence.
ALCS – Division of Winner
This is kind of a strange line, given the near-50% chance the AL West gets two teams in the playoff field and the likelier-than-not case in which the Astros hold the top overall seed in the American League.
Pick: AL West +300. Low confidence.
NLCS – Division of Winner
This is the same as the Brewers’ line, and the Brewers’ line offers good value. Throwing the tiny but non-zero chances of the Reds and Cardinals on top of it bolsters us that extra little bit.
Pick: NL Central +500. Low confidence.
AL East
The Yankees have a good roster, the Yankees aren’t entirely outside of striking distance, these odds are—like the World Series odds we grabbed Saturday and the ALCS odds we grabbed yesterday—underestimating the Yankees.
Pick: New York to win +1000. Low confidence.
AL West
The value here isn’t great, but it’s positive, and given the construction of the rest of our portfolio, locking this up gives us nearly a 100% chance of profiting on the division portion of things if the Rays lose the AL East, with a 75% chance of profiting if they don’t (we’re exploring a hedge here that would nearly entirely lock us in, but we’re holding off for at least another day and hopefully longer).
Pick: Oakland to win +1000. Low confidence.
